Polls keep changing, but what some experts are saying seem to agree.
Another well-known prediction expert is weighing in on the election.
Larry Schweikart called the 2016 Election right.
And with just weeks before the big day, he thinks one candidate will score at least 320 electoral votes:
I have seen nothing in the last two years that changed my forecast that President Trump will win with between 320 and 340 EVs. This is based on him holding ALL 2016 states & added MN and NH.
Looking at the political landscape, Schweikart says nothing from the last two years has changed his forecast.
He believes Trump will win between 320 to 340 electoral votes. He predicts he will keep all the states he won in 2016—plus picking up MN and NH.
The historian is looking at several factors to make this startling conclusion.
First, he said he doesn’t pay attention to polls—which we know can easily be swayed by bias.
Instead, he focuses on “non-polling metrics” that include trends of voter registration, actual voter registration numbers. He calls these the “single best predictors” of how an election will go.
He, like other experts, is also looking at the primary turnout. Early on in the primaries, Trump was bringing out record number of voters—compared to Biden.
Schweikart also looks at trends in special elections and state elections. In recent months, several special elections in both New York and California went for Republican candidates—shocking liberal pundits.
Many people fear that certain swing states will go for Biden this year. But for that to be true, a plurality of those who voted for Trump in 2016 will turn their backs on him.
Is that likely? You can judge for yourself. Are Trump supporters so willing to vote for Biden now, considering Biden’s platform is so different from Trump’s?
Schweikart doesn’t seem to think so. He believes Trump will keep the states he won in 2016 and even pick up a few more.
That will give him an astounding 320-340 electoral votes, something that will surely rock the liberal establishment.
He also said he could be wrong about his prediction, but he also could be “very low,” meaning Trump could win even more states.
There has been plenty of discussion among blue voters—since the lockdowns and rioters—that they are defecting for Trump.
Could we see Trump score even more EVs?
- Another prediction expert is saying Trump will win in November.
- Larry Schweikart predicts Trump could win 320 electoral votes.
- He points to a number of metrics, ignoring flawed polls.