Kamala Harris once basked in the glow of positive media coverage, a media that seemed eager to paint her as a historic and groundbreaking candidate. For months, she enjoyed the benefits of a political “honeymoon,” with soft interviews, fawning coverage, and the media working overtime to gloss over any missteps. Her rise to the top was spun into a feel-good narrative about breaking barriers and paving the way for future generations.

But the honeymoon didn’t last. As Harris started engaging more with the public and revealing her platform, voters started tuning out. The more she talked, the less appealing she became. The initial excitement dwindled as she stumbled through interviews, delivering rehearsed answers that lacked substance. And now, a new report reveals just how much trouble she’s in.

From Washington Examiner:
Former President Donald Trump is now the betting favorite in all but one swing state just over a week after he surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election betting odds.

According to online betting platform Polymarket, Trump is leading in Pennsylvania (+9%), Michigan (+6%), Wisconsin (+4%), Georgia (+27%), Arizona (+36%), and North Carolina (+25%). The bettors gave Harris a narrow 1% advantage over Trump in Nevada.

New Betting Data Spells Doom

The latest election betting data paints a grim picture for Harris, who is trailing Donald Trump in key battleground states. According to the online platform Polymarket, Trump holds a commanding lead in crucial states like Pennsylvania (+9%), Michigan (+6%), and Wisconsin (+4%).

These are the states that Harris desperately needs to win. Even worse, Trump is dominating in states like Georgia (+27%), Arizona (+36%), and North Carolina (+25%). Harris is only ahead by a narrow 1% margin in Nevada, but that small lead is hardly comforting.

On the national stage, Trump is leading Harris by a whopping 10.8%. This is the largest margin any candidate has held since July. The betting odds give Trump a 54.9% chance to win the 2024 election, compared to Harris’ 44.1%. If these numbers hold, it’s game over for Harris.

A Tale of Two Predictions

But how do these betting odds compare with the polls? Interestingly, they mostly align. In five out of seven battleground states, both the betting odds and polling data agree—Trump is in the lead. RealClearPolling shows Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. The only exceptions are Nevada and Wisconsin, where the polls show Harris with a slim lead while bettors lean toward Trump.

If the betting odds are accurate, Trump would secure 306 electoral votes, easily surpassing the 270 needed to win. If the polls are correct, he would still win with 302 electoral votes.

Either way, both the polls and the odds indicate a Trump victory. This is hardly the outcome Harris had in mind when she launched her campaign, riding high on a wave of media adoration.

A Divided Government Looms

Even if Trump wins the presidency, it won’t be smooth sailing. The betting markets suggest a divided government come 2024, with Republicans favored to win the Senate and Democrats projected to keep the House.

According to Maxim Lott and John Stossel’s Election Betting Odds tracker, Republicans now have a 56-point advantage in the Senate race, while Democrats hold a shrinking 10.5-point lead in the House.

The Senate is expected to flip to a 52-48 GOP majority, while Harris will have to deal with a Democratic-led House if she somehow pulls off a miracle. But the betting markets are clear: the odds are in Trump’s favor.

Big Trouble for Incumbents

Several incumbent Democrats are in trouble, too. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy has an 80.5% chance to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Tester, and in Ohio, GOP challenger Bernie Moreno holds a slight edge over Senator Sherrod Brown. Meanwhile, Republican challengers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are within striking distance of flipping those Senate seats red.

The stakes are high, and Harris’ dwindling numbers only add to the drama. With the election just weeks away, public appearances and major interviews could be make-or-break moments.

Harris, set to appear on Fox News for the first time in a high-stakes interview with Brett Baier, faces enormous pressure to change the narrative. On the other side, Trump is lining up strategic interviews, including a highly anticipated appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, which could further boost his numbers.

October Surprises?

This election cycle has already seen some significant shifts tied to public appearances. Trump’s odds surged to an all-time high in July after surviving an assassination attempt at a rally.

Meanwhile, Harris’ stock plummeted after her disastrous “word salad” performance on 60 Minutes earlier this month. Since then, Trump has only gained ground, leading the betting odds for nine consecutive days.

Could there still be an October surprise to shake things up? It’s possible. Both candidates are betting on major media appearances to swing the undecideds. But as things stand, Trump has the momentum, and Harris is running out of time.

Key Takeaways:

• Trump leads Harris in key battleground states and national odds with a commanding +10.8% margin.
• Betting odds and polls mostly agree: Trump is set to win, with either 306 or 302 electoral votes.
• A divided government is likely, with Republicans favored to win the Senate and Democrats projected to retain control of the House.

Source: Washington Examiner