The media continues to spread rumor and speculation that, no matter what, Sleepy Joe Biden is going to win 2020.
But even their much-touted nationwide polls are a weak indicator of the actual race (just ask Hillary).
Instead, there are other indicators that can give us an idea about what will happen.
A new report reveals that three of these signs tell us where the race is headed: enthusiasm among supporters, the importance of the market, and key demo polls.
And they’re all pointing one way:
Following the conventions of both parties in late August, Rasmussen Reports found GOP voter enthusiasm reached 85 percent, up 10 percentage points from July, following the conclusion of the optimistic, largely in-person Republican National Convention, which concluded last Thursday.
It looks like the RNC got party enthusiasm up to 85%. But Democrats are only at a stagnating 71% and it’s not changing. But that’s not all:
The stock market is a more powerful presidential reelection indicator than GDP, inflation and the unemployment rate combined. That was the key finding of a 2012 paper by our team at the Socionomics Institute.
After the drop in March, the markets are surging to new heights. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 actually set all-time records; and that’s after a global pandemic and lockdown.
Then, there’s this, reported on Trump’s Twitter:
Great honor, but think we are much higher than 46%. Hidden vote! https://t.co/YsZUgtNoZW
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2020
According to one new poll, black voters back Trump by 28% (up by 20) and Hispanic voters back Trump by 41% (up by 13).
Enthusiasm might be a bigger factor than anything else, since people who are eager to elect their candidate will flock the polls. Many will encourage their friends and family to vote as well.
Democrats, with a lagging 71% enthusiasm, aren’t falling over themselves to elect Joe Biden. And it seems to be getting worse by the day.
It’s no secret that Democrat were hoping the COVID panic would crush our economy, and that voters would blame Trump.
But after the scare in March, the markets quickly clawed back. Over the Summer, the markets soared—and that’s even before every state has reopened.
Some have said that if a Republican gets 25% of the black vote, Democrats would never win another race.
Well, according to a recent poll, Trump has 28% of the black vote and 41% of the Hispanic vote. Those numbers are strong enough to crush not only Biden, but every Democrat on the ticket.
(Many approval polls over the last few years have Trump’s black supporter between 30-40%).
Are you voting for four more years of Trump?
- Three major factors suggest Trump is going to win better than national polls.
- Party enthusiasm, surging stock market, and minority support put Trump in a good position.