With only a few exceptions, recent 2024 polls show us that Joe Biden is in big trouble. The “moderate” Democrat who promised unity in 2021 is sinking fast. Many swing state surveys show him losing to Donald Trump. In some cases, he’s losing by double digits.

Meanwhile, Trump is campaigning in blue states—forcing Biden to fight for regions he thought were in the bag.

But one state could spoil everyone’s plans. While considered a swing state, it has gone for one party every election for the last 20 years. Now, with the introduction of a surprise element, the state is making a huge swing. This could be a major indicator of this year’s race.

From AARP:
The 50+ voting bloc holds an outsized importance to this year’s election – 85% of Nevadans 50+ are “extremely motivated” to cast a vote in November, significantly higher than the 60% of voters 18-49. With the races being so close this year, appealing to high-turnout voters should be a major campaign priority.

In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump (R) leads President Joe Biden (D) by 7 percentage points among all voters – 44% to 37%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr getting 10%. Trump’s lead is greater among voters ages 50 and older, at 50% to 38%. President Biden leads among 50+ Hispanic and Latino voters in Nevada, 47% to 38%, with Kennedy getting 10%. However, among voters overall, in a head-to-head between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the race is considerably closer: Trump leads Biden 48% to 45%. Ballot access for Kennedy looms large in the race.

This is not good for Joe Biden. Nevada, which has gone for Democrats every time in the last 20 years, is breaking for Trump. According to an AARP poll, Trump beats Biden 48% to 45%. He has a larger lead with voters over 50, 50% to 38%. That’s significant, but that voting block says it is “extremely motivated” to vote this year by 85%.

Trump’s numbers get even better when factoring in surprise element, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When including the independent candidate, Trump wins 44% to 37%. That is a huge advantage for Trump and something that will make Biden very nervous. It shows us that Kennedy is a much larger threat to Biden in Nevada.

But that all depends on whether RFK will be on the November ballot. Democrats have sued to keep him off, but there is a strong chance he will appear on his own ticket or the Green Party. Meaning Biden has a huge problem in Nevada.

Key Takeaways:

• Donald Trump is beating Joe Biden in Nevada, according to a new AARP poll.
• Voters over 50 will play an “outsized” role in the state, being “extreme motivated” to vote this year.
• When factoring RFK’s name on the ballot, Trump beats Biden 44% to 37%.

Source: AARP