Helmut Norpoth predicted Trump’s historic victory in 2016. His model has been successful 5 out of his last 6 election predictions.
In July, he released his predictions for 2020—saying Trump was going to win.
He based his findings on the turnout from early primary states, showing enthusiasm for Trump is at record highs.
But the media has continued to ask him if he has any updates or perhaps changed his mind.
He does have an update and here it is:
The chances that President Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 is near certain, according to a political science professor whose election model has a history of correctly predicting election results.
Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model shows President Trump has a 91-percent chance of winning re-election, according to his interview with Stony Brook News.
It seems like the media was wondering if Norpoth would reverse his predictions, saying Trump was going to lose to Biden.
After all, the media and Democrats (I repeat myself), have hyped up the pandemic, lockdowns, and other unrest as “proof” Trump is failing.
They crafted a narrative to suggest Trump will lose, because of problems that were out of his control. Problems which, by the way, were made much worse (or created entirely) by Democrats.
Norpoth threw water on their fire, by asserting Trump is going to win. He has given him a 91 percent chance at securing a second term.
He, once again, points at the primary turnout at the early part of the year.
Donald Trump was able to bring record numbers of voters to nominate him for the Republican primaries.
Even though he was the incumbent and his nomination all but secured, Trump supporters came out in droves to cast their vote.
Biden, on the other hand, could barely muster any enthusiasm. Democrats seemed little impressed by the man.
It only turned around for him when numerous candidates dropped out, essentially giving Dem voters no choice.
Norpoth suggests that Biden will not be able to muster enough support to overcome Trump’s army of eager voters.
Even with the lockdowns, COVID fears, and mass rioting (in blue districts), Trump will clinch the race.
- Helmut Norpoth updated his election prediction, giving Trump a 91% chance at victory.
- The professor is pointing to early primary results as an indicator of enthusiasm.
- Despite the uncertain year, he says Trump will defeat Biden.