We are only months away from the 2024 Election. This election won’t just decide who will serve as president.
If Donald Trump expects to “save America” as he often says, he will need the full support of Congress.
That includes flipping the Senate. Democrats currently enjoy a one-seat majority. But experts are looking at November. And things aren’t lining up for the left.
Republicans have a prime chance to take back a multiple-seat majority in the U.S. Senate as nine Democrat seats are in play for Republicans heading into 2024. Meanwhile, just two GOP seats offer realistic pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
This year, only 11 Republican Senate seats are up for re-election. However, 23 Democrat seats will be up for re-election. None of the GOP incumbents are in particular danger of losing their seats.
For perspective, the two most hotly contested Republican-held seats are in Texas and Florida. Texas is a deep-red state that is turning more red, thanks to Biden’s border blunders. Florida has quickly become a majority Republican state, thanks to Ron DeSantis.
The chances that Democrats can take these seats, even after spending millions on campaigns, appear slim.
Meanwhile, there appear to be numerous pick-up opportunities for Republicans in other states. Three states they can easily take are Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Trump won these states in 2020—and Montana and West Virginia are heavily conservative.
Two other states that look good for Republicans are Arizona and Pennsylvania. Arizona has trended blue, but one of its senators—Kyrsten Sinema—recently left the Democratic Party to become an independent. This suggests the state isn’t as blue as some think.
Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016. And recent polls suggest voters have buyer’s remorse over supporting Biden in 2020. It is possible a Trump ticket could propel a Republican candidate for Senate.
Additional states Republicans can pick up include Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and Nevada. Should Republicans take all these states, they would end up with a 58-seat majority in the Senate. While that is a long shot, they can still score major wins and become retake the majority in this election cycle.
Republicans have numerous pathways to secure a Senate majority in 2024.
Many Democrat seats are vulnerable, thanks to retiring senators and Biden’s shortcomings.