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Just Days Before Election, Professor Doubles Down On His Election Forecast: Trump Has A 91% Chance Of Winning
By Ben Dutka|October 30, 2020
Just Days Before Election, Professor Doubles Down On His Election Forecast: Trump Has A 91% Chance Of Winning

With just days to go before the 2020 presidential election, most national polls put Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the lead. In fact, some surveys show Biden with a commanding advantage.

However, some political experts believe the race could be closer than anticipated. And a few even think President Trump has a great chance of being re-elected.

Take political scientist Helmut Norpoth, for instance.

Some time ago, he made the prediction that Trump would indeed score a victory in November. And now, he’s doubling down on that controversial prediction.

Norpoth has good reason to be confident; the model he’s using for the 2020 election has correctly predicted the winner in 25 out of the last 27 elections. This includes Trump’s win in 2016.

And as he told The Daily Caller’s Caity McDuffee, it’s all about the electoral college:

In the end, it depends on the electoral college breakdown, and I give Donald Trump a sizable lead in the electoral college.

Norpoth’s model gives Trump a distinct advantage — it shows Trump getting 362 electoral votes, with Biden claiming only 176.

In coming to this conclusion, Norpoth examines previous primaries and certain states. For example, he reminds us that Biden “did terribly in New Hampshire, the first primary.”

He added that the first primary is “probably the most decisive of all the primaries in the whole cycle.”

Furthermore, Norpoth said predictions in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were well off the mark prior to the 2016 election:

On the average, they all had Trump down by, I don’t know at least sort of, four points or more.

If I see Trump down about, let’s say that much against Biden in this election, I’m not too worried about it.

Norpoth isn’t the only one to consider the similarities between 2016 and 2020. Specifically, the fact that Trump was predicted to lose by a fair margin to Hillary Clinton, and now to Biden.

There are a variety of key factors to consider this time around, though.

The pandemic could play a big role in voter turnout and decisions, and it remains to be seen if the recent Hunter Biden dust-up will negatively impact Joe’s campaign.

Then there’s the issue of mail-in voting and absentee ballots, which remains a strong point of contention on both sides.

But regardless of these factors, if Norpoth is correct, Trump fans will have 4 more years to look forward to.

Key Takeaways:

  • Political scientist Helmut Norpoth is sticking by his prediction — Donald Trump has a 91% chance of winning.
  • Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections. This includes Trump’s 2016 victory.
  • The model shows Trump claiming a big advantage in electoral votes: 362 – 176.

Source: The Daily Caller

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Ben Dutka
Ben S. Dutka is a journalist, writer and editor with over two decades of experience. He has worked with three newspapers and eight online publications, and he has also won a Connecticut short story contest entitled Art as Muse, Imaginary Realms. He has a penchant for writing, rowing, reading, video games, and Objectivism.
Ben S. Dutka is a journalist, writer and editor with over two decades of experience. He has worked with three newspapers and eight online publications, and he has also won a Connecticut short story contest entitled Art as Muse, Imaginary Realms. He has a penchant for writing, rowing, reading, video games, and Objectivism.
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