The final presidential debate gave Trump the opportunity to highlight his track record in office—compared to Biden’s short list of accomplishments as Vice President.
And now, just days before election day, it looks like the polls are starting to move significantly. For months they showed Biden with a significant lead nationally and in key battleground states.
But a flood of new polls show something has definitely changed across the board, from swing states to nationwide. From Rasmussen:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds Trump beating Biden 49% to 46%.
Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains another point, besting Biden 50% to 46%.
Florida is a must-win state for Trump. He won it narrowly in 2016, and polls showed him trailing Biden. But Donald seems to be peaking at just the right time.
But to get to 270, Donald also needs to pick up at least one of the big three blue swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. And while he’s running close in all of them, it looks like he could be surging ahead in one of them.
Trump 49% (+4)
Zia Poll, LV, 10/11-18https://t.co/esjBX01ujS
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 23, 2020
That’s a great poll for Trump. He won Michigan by a much closer margin last time, and other polls ar still showing a Biden lead there, so Trump has to focus on picking up these Midwest states. His economic arguments to open up and support the oil and racking industries should help his cause.
But there’s a movement beyond the swing states—it looks like there is a major move nationally that looks quite different from 2016. From Gallup, via Twitter:
A follow up to our previous tweet about Gallup’s Party Affiliation findings:
Now it is R+1 (28R to 27D)
This time in 2016 it was D+5 (R27 to D32)
In 2012 it was D+4https://t.co/dMyvBy5VS9
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 19, 2020
A 6-point swing is a big deal for Republicans across the board. This will of course help Trump, but could also help key Senate races and take away at least a chunk of Pelosi’s majority in the House. It could be an indication that America has had enough of the political games Pelosi has been playing during a serious crisis.
And lastly, there’s considerably good news for President Trump. From Rasmussen:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday… shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.
This is the second day in a row Trump is over 50% approval. He was at 52% yesterday, near a historic high. That bodes well for his electoral chances. It seems to match up with the recent poll showing 56% of Americans are better off since Trump took office.
And it is better than what Obama had at this point in his term. And keep in mind, Mitt Romney was polling strongly against Obama but it became apparent early on election night that his position was not nearly as strong as the polls claimed.
We may be starting to see a repeat of 2012, where the power of the incumbency and general polling being too generous for the challenger made the incumbent look vulnerable. But in the end, like Trafalgar pollster and others are predicting, Trump may be in am much stronger position than many think.
Do you think Trump will beat Biden in 2020?