According to most national polls, it appears Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a hefty lead over President Donald Trump. Some polls even show a double-digit advantage.
But the contest might be closer than some believe, especially in the battleground states. In fact, it looks like the election will come down to the wire in one swing state.
It could be bad news for Biden, too, because he might’ve thought he was leading in this state by a significant margin.
According to a Restoration PAC/Trafalgar Group survey released this week, Biden and Trump are “statistically tied” in Pennsylvania.
This is one of those critical states for both candidates, and both will push hard to earn a victory there. But the gap just seems to keep narrowing.
The survey, taken October 13-15 among 1,041 likely voters, showed Trump narrowing the gap in Pennsylvania, with Biden leading by just 1.1 percent — 47.5 percent to the president’s 46.4 percent.
As has been the emerging theme in several recent surveys in key Rust Belt states, Biden’s lead is within the margin of error, which is +/- 2.96 percent.
One might conclude that the shrinking gap is due to the recent Hunter Biden/email fiasco. Many Republicans have seized on this to tear down the Biden campaign.
However, the poll includes only one day of the existence of that news, so it’s unlikely it had a major impact on the results.
On top of which, Trump’s newfound momentum might continue, and propel him to victory in Pennsylvania. Said Restoration PAC founder and President Doug Truax:
It looks like the race is essentially tied across the important upper Midwestern swing states.
We believe President Trump has the stronger message down the stretch that will tip the balance his way.
Many citizens continue to question the accuracy of such polls, of course. Some point to the 2016 election, which featured many surveys that showed an imminent Hillary Clinton victory.
However, this particular poll has a solid history.
RealClearPolitics co-founder and President Tom Bevan recently referred to the Trafalgar Group as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America.”
And in fact, this particular group did correctly predict the 2016 election, so perhaps we should pay close attention.
Furthermore, other surveys, including a new Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness survey, show Trump has closed the gap in PA.
Trump managed to eke out a narrow victory in 2016, and he might manage to do it again.
- According to a new survey, President Trump is now “statistically tied” with Joe Biden in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
- He has apparently narrowed the gap to just 1.1 percent. The polling group in question also correctly predicted the 2016 election.
- PA and other battleground states will be critical for both candidates come November. And the races might be closer than many polls claim.